DUBLIN (AFP) — Early indications Friday pointed to a rejection of the Lisbon EU reform treaty by voters in Ireland, an outcome that would pitch the European Union into a new period of crisis.
"From what I hear, it is not looking good," Irish Europe Minister Dick Roche, a key leader of the "yes" campaign for Thursday's referendum, told AFP.
Partial tallies showed the "no" vote in the lead in Dublin and elsewhere, according to the RTE public state broadcaster which stressed that it was still too early to forecast the final result.
Ireland's roughly three million voters effectively hold the future direction of the entire EU -- population nearly 500 million -- in their hands as the Lisbon Treaty needs approval by all 27 EU member states.
Speaking from his home constituency of Wicklow south of Dublin, Roche said: "It is neck-and-neck here... From what I hear, Wicklow is one of the better constituencies (for the 'yes' campaign)."
But he added: "From what we hear elsewhere, it is not looking good. It is not good. But I am keeping my fingers crossed, it might come right later in the day."
He said the broad picture was that in working class urban areas and in rural areas, the "no" vote was doing well, while the picture was better for the "yes" vote in middle class urban areas.
By late morning the Irish Times' website reported a 60 percent-40 percent split in favour of the "no" side in Dublin South West, adding that the same proportions were thought to be repeated in other parts of the capital.
That tallied with reports from RTE. "The early trend in tallies from around the country is all one way and its all against the Lisbon Treaty," said RTE radio in its 11 am (1000 GMT) news bulletin.
The Lisbon Treaty replaced the doomed EU constitution, which was rejected by French and Dutch voters in referendums in 2005, plunging the bloc into a crisis.
A rejection of the Lisbon Treaty would leave the EU -- whose leaders meet for a summit in Brussels next week -- facing a new crisis like that which followed the 2005 Franco-Dutch snub to the EU constitution.
Ireland has caused upsets in EU referendums before. In 2001, its voters rejected the Nice Treaty, a result overturned in a second poll the following year.
Backers of the treaty, which aims to make EU decision-making more efficient, struggled to get their message across, despite a campaign backed by all bar one of the main political parties.
With many Irish people complaining that they do not understand what the treaty is about, pre-referendum opinion polls placed the "yes" and "no" camps virtually neck-and-neck.
One opinion poll last week put the "no" campaign ahead on 35 percent, compared to 30 percent for those backing the treaty, while another survey Sunday predicted a narrow "yes" victory, by 42 to 39 percent.
Opponents rallied support for the "no" campaign around claims including that the treaty threatens sensitive Irish policies like the ban on abortion, low corporation tax and military neutrality.
Libertas, a group run by businessman Declan Ganley, and left-wing Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams, were among the most prominent "no" campaigners.
Ganley had urged people to vote "no" so that Ireland can retain a stronger voice in Europe which he said would be wiped out by the treaty.
"I hope, and I firmly believe, that the Irish people will vote 'no' and that the work can immediately begin on constructing a better vision of Europe for all its 490 million citizens," he said.
Some European big hitters have said they would be baffled if Ireland -- whose 1990s Celtic Tiger economic boom was partly-fuelled by European money -- would vote no.
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