LA PAZ (AFP) — Fears mounted in Bolivia Saturday that a referendum which could end the mandates of President Evo Morales or several opposition governors may deepen a political crisis dividing the country.
Observers said two conflicting sets of rules on how to interpret the results of Sunday's recall referendum -- one issued by the National Electoral Court and the other by congress -- could mire the vote in confusion.
"This is a problem," Carlos Alvarez, heading up a group of poll observers from South American countries in the Mercosur trade bloc, admitted to La Razon newspaper.
"We hope they find an agreement either before the referendum or immediately afterwards on just one interpretation of the rules," he said.
The Organization of American States, which has also sent observers, said Bolivia's four million voters needed "security as to how their votes will be counted and how the results will be defined."
The uncertainty has elevated pre-poll tensions, which have already sparked isolated incidents of violence.
Morales has found himself unable to travel to many parts of the country that are opposition strongholds. On Tuesday, Argentine President Cristina Kirchner and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, both allies, had to cancel a visit to see Morales in southern Bolivia when anti-government protesters stormed the airport.
The Bolivian president called the referendum to reassert his authority over rebellious governors who are refusing to adopt his socialist reforms that would give more of the nation's limited wealth to the indigenous majority of which he is part.
"I'm not afraid of the people. It's better to submit to the people than to certain domestic and foreign interests," he said in allusion to his conservative opponents and to the United States, which he frequently criticizes.
But the contradictory rules for the results, and Morales's refusal to negotiate with the opposition, has frustrated voters.
"Most people think it (the referendum) is a distraction from the problems we have, and I don't think it'll change anything really," Pamela Gutirrez, a 25-year-old computer specialist in La Paz, told AFP. She added that she would vote for Morales anyway.
According to congress, which is relying on the constitution, Morales or the governors can be ousted if the number of No votes exceed the amount of support they received in 2005 elections.
Thus Morales could be forced out if more than 53.74 percent of voters go against him. The governors can be toppled with just 38 to 48 percent of ballots.
But the National Electoral Court has offered a very different formula: Morales's bar remains at 53.74 percent, but the proportion needed to bring down a governor is 50 percent plus one ballot.
That could create a scenario in which Morales insists that a governor has been ousted according to congress, but the governor refuses to go, citing the court's standard.
"The governors who are recalled with less than 50 percent of the vote will make it known they're not happy very, very quickly. And I think if Morales is not ratified by a big margin, we could see a deepening of the political crisis," said French political analyst Herve Do Alto, who has been living in La Paz for three years.
Morales's fiercest critic, Manfred Reyes, governor of the central Cochabamba state, has said he would refuse to step down, regardless of the result.
Another opposition governor, Ruben Costas of Bolivia's wealthiest state of Santa Cruz, predicted a groundswell of No votes against Morales in his and allied regions. "We are pushing on with determination with the autonomy process," he said.
The volatility of the situation has caused international concern.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was closely watching the referendum and "calls on all political and social actors to ensure a peaceful climate throughout the electoral process and its aftermath," his office said.
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