BEIJING (AFP) — The Beijing Olympics were supposed to mark China's debut as a modern nation that commands respect, even admiration, but instead of that dream, the country's leaders face a PR nightmare.
A crackdown on unrest in Tibet has added to mounting pressure on China over human rights and other issues that threaten to tarnish the coming-out party, pushing its Communist leaders into an uncomfortable corner, analysts said.
"This is the worst thing that could have happened for China," China scholar Jean Philippe Beja said of deadly unrest in the Tibetan capital Lhasa that has forced an army lock down of the city.
"The Chinese and Tibetan leaders are facing a no-win situation," said Beja, of the Centre for International Research in Paris.
With five months to go before the world's athletes begin competing here, China's communist government finds itself teetering on a political balance beam, observers and dissidents said.
Aside from Tibet, China is under fire for its tough rule in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang region, for restricting press and religious freedoms, and its support of Sudan, which is blamed for the massive bloodshed in Darfur.
It has also drawn condemnation for what rights activists call a crackdown on critics, including the arrest in December of prominent human rights campaigner Hu Jia.
Former factory worker Yang Chunlin has also been tried and is awaiting a verdict after he organised a petition -- entitled "We want human rights, not the Olympics" -- that gathered 10,000 signatures.
The Tibet issue embodies the pitfalls China faces on these challenges, experts say.
A strong response on critics could trigger worldwide condemnation, while not being tough enough could embolden further dissent.
"Beijing will have to find a middle way, between not doing anything -- with the risk that the situation could worsen -- and with reacting violently, arresting everybody and firing on crowds," Valerie Niquet, director of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris, told AFP.
"What's interesting is that we see strong tension on a regime that does not like tension."
Any misstep in Tibet, in particular, will likely have serious repercussions on China's image and the success of the Games, said Beijing-based dissident Liu Xiaobo.
"If the Tibet situation spawns large-scale bloodshed, the impact on the Olympics will be great and will lead to even greater world condemnation," he said.
China could easily defuse the tensions by offering to hear the grievances of Tibetans, opening talks with exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama and loosening its grip on critics, observers said.
But the long-term risks of such actions would far outweigh -- in Beijing's eyes -- a tarnished Games, said Kate Saunders of the International Campaign for Tibet.
"While there is an historic moment for China to address the concerns of the Tibetan people, the hardest thing for the Chinese leadership to do would be to really engage," said Saunders, adding that she expected the familiar pattern of harsh suppression.
China's quandary would likely be even worse if world governments and the International Olympic Committee applied strong pressure.
But the responses have been tepid out of a fear that economically powerful China could hold a grudge against anyone seeking to spoil its moment in the sun, say observers.
"Unfortunately, I think China can afford even more repression in Tibet, because the world's leaders are in an awkward position," said Claude Levenson, a Switzerland-based author and specialist in Tibetan issues.
China faces another test next week when it is expected to put the high-profile dissident Hu on trial.
But dissident Liu said he expected China to cynically score some points in the weeks ahead with an expected light sentence for Hu, who he said was being used as a bargaining chip.
"I think you'll see China continuing to step nimbly like this to deflect the world pressure," he said.
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