NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AFP) — The United States has been a mover and shaker in climate change talks for over a decade, but delegates at the Bali summit say US clout is on the wane as countries look beyond the Bush era.
Some say that with US elections due to take place less than 11 months from now, it leaves President George W. Bush a lame duck when it comes to shaping the climate change agenda.
"As we think about how to frame these negotiations, and to reach an agreement, let's think in terms of the future leadership of the US," said James Leape, head of the conservation group WWF.
"Because that will be a different generation and that will almost certainly be leadership that is serious about climate change."
For supporters of the Kyoto Protocol -- the climate treaty almost wrecked by Bush's rejection in 2001 -- the next White House incumbent is bound to want to end America's long years as a climate pariah.
At best, they hope, he or she could steer the world's No. 1 carbon polluter back into the fold of industrialised nations that commit to targeted cuts in their CO2 emissions.
"Whoever will be the next president, he will be not as far from the climate negotiations as the president we have," German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel said.
Nobel laureate Al Gore and Senator John Kerry, the two men Bush defeated for the White House, have both visited Bali to remind nations the clock is ticking for the president.
"We wanted to bring to Bali the message that the United States is going to be at the table, the United States is going to lead, the United States is going to embrace significantly changed policies in order to deal with climate change," Kerry said.
Environment ministers in the Indonesian resort island have until Friday to agree a framework for negotiations on a pact on tackling climate change after Kyoto's provisions expire in 2012.
Green groups accuse the United States of trying to derail the so-called Bali roadmap by blocking proposals on a number of key issues.
James Connaughton, one of the US negotiators, remained defiant. "The US will lead, and we will continue to lead, but leadership also requires others to fall in line and follow," he told reporters.
Bush argues Kyoto is too costly for the US economy and unfair, as it does not include developing countries in its binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
But just ahead of the Bali talks, he lost a key ally in this position when Australia changed government and ratified Kyoto.
That has left the US delegation trying to sell a policy mix of voluntary measures and technological transfer -- an approach that the rest of the world considers useful but no substitute for legally-binding curbs -- and rejecting any attempt to drag it into targeted cuts.
A European diplomat said the US delegation "is heard but not listened to."
He meant the United States could not be ignored, given its gigantic economy and the fact no climate solution can be envisaged without its help.
WWF campaigner Hans Verolme said some countries had suggested pushing back the deadline for wrapping up a new pact to 2010, allowing time for a new US administration to settle in and, hopefully, rejoin the Kyoto club.
"The problem with (the 2010 deadline) is that by doing this you leave everything to the last minute, which could give the whip hand to the United States," he said.
Despite its loss of influence, Washington is not alone on some positions.
Its argument that emerging giants should be coaxed into tougher curbs has gained traction, given that China may already have overtaken the United States as the world's biggest emitter.
Poorer nations, green groups and the European Union want industrial nations to give a big push to negotiations by making the first move on emissions curbs of 25 to 40 percent by 2020 by 1990 levels.
The United States, however, argues that such figures will "pre-judge" the negotiations, and three other countries -- Japan, Canada and the newly-minted Kyoto convert Australia -- are also opposed.
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