WELLINGTON (AFP) — When New Zealand votes in this weekend's election, voting complexities and political loyalties may leave a party with less than three percent support deciding the country's next government.
The Maori Party, only formed in 2004, holds four of seven seats set aside for indigenous Maori voters, and is tipped to win two or three more in the 120-seat parliament in Saturday's vote.
That could be crucial, because no party has been able to govern on its own in New Zealand since a system of mixed member proportional (MMP) voting was introduced in 1996.
Prime Minister Helen Clark's three-term government has been based around alliances with minor parties over the past nine years.
Under the proportional voting system, 70 seats are filled by legislators representing general and Maori electorates while 50 come from party lists.
Polls show Clark's centre-left Labour Party around 12 percentage points behind John Key's centre-right National Party, but commentators have not been willing to write off the wily Clark because of the minor parties' key role.
Previous elections have been followed by days or even weeks of protracted negotiations between the two major parties and the smaller parties before a government has been formed.
The Maori Party is campaigning for greater economic development for Maori people, who make up 15 percent of the population and are over-represented in poverty and crime statistics.
In the past Maori voters have leaned heavily to Labour and the Maori Party is vehemently opposed to National's plan to abolish the Maori electorates by 2014.
Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia has no love for Clark, angrily quitting Labour in 2004 over a government move to prevent Maori making court claims for control of foreshore and seabed areas.
But Turia's co-leader Pita Sharples has acknowledged Maori Party supporters want a Labour victory.
"The feeling is still there -- Maori are joined at the hip with Labour. There is no doubt about it," he said.
Turia, in contrast, has said the Maori Party would be prepared to work with National or Labour, depending on what concessions they offer.
She said support would be based on "what we are able to advance for our people."
"We want to be cooperative, we want to ensure we get through to the next election, but it doesn't come at no cost," she told state-owned radio.
Previous elections have shown the major parties are prepared to make big concessions to small parties to win power.
After the last election, Clark agreed to appoint populist New Zealand First leader Winston Peters -- a frequent critic of Asian immigration -- as foreign minister in return for his party's support.
But after controversy over donations from wealthy business interests, New Zealand First is at risk of disappearing in the latest election, and Key has ruled out cutting any post-election deal with Peters.
Some polls have put National Party support at more than 50 percent -- which if carried through on election day would mean it could govern on its own.
Key will be hoping for this outcome because he might only pick up another two to four seats from two conservative minor party allies.
Clark's Labour has the support of the largest minor group, the Green Party, which has been polling at around 7.5 percent. She would also likely count on Peters' support if his party survives.
"Under MMP, it's all about who has the friends in the parliament to form a government," Clark told reporters last week.
"If the National Party can't form a government, someone has to form a government."
Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved. More »
