WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States hopes Pakistan's upcoming election will be free and fair and bring an end to domestic violence so that Islamabad can focus on the "war on terror." But it may not get what it wants.
In addition, experts warn, any post-election violence that results in a confrontation between President Pervez Musharraf or the powerful military and moderate democratic forces could force Washington to make a difficult choice on who to back.
Even before the ballot Monday, the State Department has predicted some rigging was expected in the election process to be supervised by a commission that lacked neutrality and independence.
Human Rights Watch, a US group, claimed Thursday it had obtained an audio recording in which Pakistan?s Attorney General Malik Qayyum stated that the elections will be "massively rigged."
The popular Pakistan People's Party of assassinated ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has threatened mass agitation if fraud denies it victory.
On the other hand, Musharraf, a top US "war on terror" ally, vowed to crush any opposition protests against result of the poll he pledged would be free and fair.
Against the ominous backdrop, US security officials fear any internal strife could divert Islamabad's attention from what they call the very urgent task of flushing out Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants from their Pakistan "safe haven."
"Just about every political player in the Pakistani elections has already declared in words or deeds that 'good elections' are not going to happen," said the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based think tank.
"The United States must be prepared for deeply flawed results and the risk of ensuing violence," it said in a commentary Thursday.
It called on US policymakers to make "a dramatic shift" in how the United States approaches Pakistan, including recognizing that Musharraf?s continued political survival was not a precondition for dealing with militancy.
The United States must also be ready to apply pressure on Musharraf to accommodate the demands of the political opposition and to support any power sharing government, the center said.
Experts in Washington say the United States should shift from dealing mainly with Musharraf, who seems to be getting unpopular by the day, to a more broad-based government run by civilians.
"The US must support the process of democracy and not any particular individual or party," said Lisa Curtis, a former State Department advisor on South Asia, and an ex-CIA analyst.
The Democratic-led Congress has also asked Bush to tie all US aid to Pakistan to promoting a free and democratic Pakistan and combating violent radicalism.
The Bush administration will face a crucial test if a confrontation occurred between the democratic forces and Musharraf or the military after the elections. Widespread protests may also prompt the army to move against Musharraf or even nullify elections.
"This is an issue that is obviously going to pose some real dilemmas if the election is seen as unacceptable to the Pakistani people," said Ashley Tellis, a security expert with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In such a scenario, Congress might respond in a way that could "strengthen the objective of building bonds with Pakistan in its entirety but would put at risk a very important relationship that we have with the Pakistani military," he said.
"And so trading off between these two goods, both of which are important in different ways I think is going to tax the wisdom of those who have to make these decisions," Tellis said.
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