WASHINGTON (AFP) — General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, will reportedly recommend a gradual reduction of US forces beginning next spring in his eagerly anticipated testimony to Congress next week.
"Based on the progress our forces are achieving, I expect to be able to recommend that some of our forces will be redeployed without replacement," Petraeus told the Boston Globe in an email from Baghdad.
"That will, over time, reduce the total number of troops in Iraq. The process will take time, but we want to be sure to maintain the security gains that coalition and Iraqi forces have worked so hard to achieve," he said.
The force reduction Petraeus forecast will come as the five additional brigades deployed to Iraq as part of President George W. Bush's "surge" strategy end their tours of duty over the spring and summer, and are not replaced, the daily said. A brigade consists of 3,500 to 4,500 soldiers.
"The bottom line is that ... I do not envision that the US would need to send more troops," he was quoted as saying. "In fact, we are in the process of doing the 'battlefield geometry' to determine the way ahead as the surge of forces inevitably runs its course."
There are currently 168,000 US troops in Iraq, including the 30,000 "surge" troops deployed to help stabilize Baghdad and the restive Al-Anbar province.
Beginning Monday, Petraeus and the US ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Crocker, will testify about the war's progress to the Democratic-controlled Congress amid growing calls for the beginning of a withdrawal.
The White House declined to comment on Bush's plans for troop levels in Iraq or what advice he had received from Petraeus.
"Decisions about troop levels will be made based on continued security progress and the recommendations of the commanders on the ground," said Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman.
"We're not going to comment in any way on what General Petraeus discussed with the president," Fratto said.
The New York Times reported Friday that Petraeus has told Bush he wants to keep the heightened troop level there well into next year, but that he could accept pulling out about 4,000 soldiers beginning in January.
A senior US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the New York Times article was "off base."
"He told me the story was off base," the official said. "He said, 'fire the sources," meaning not accurate, and 'the article is off base.'"
Petraeus wants to maintain troop levels to reduce the risk of military setbacks but could accept the withdrawal of one brigade to assuage critics in Congress, the Times said, citing unnamed senior administration and military officials.
Petraeus "is worried about risk, and all things being equal he'd like to keep as much as he could for as long as he could," a senior military officer was quoted as saying in the Times.
Beyond the gesture of pulling back one brigade, Petraeus will discuss the possibility of far deeper withdrawals beyond January that, over a number of months, could bring US force levels back to the early 2007 point of 130,000 troops, said the Times.
But officials involved in the preparation of the general's testimony said it was unclear how specific Petraeus would be in publicly discussing the timing of pullbacks, the daily said.
The Washington Post, citing an unnamed senior US official, also reported that Petraeus has indicated a willingness to consider a drawdown of between 3,500 and 4,500 US troops early next year, with more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground.
The pullouts would be contingent on the ability of US and Iraqi forces to sustain what the administration sees as recent gains in security and to make further inroads in stabilizing Iraq, the Post said.
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