CAIRO (AFP) — Egypt should normalise the banned Muslim Brotherhood's role in political life, the International Crisis Group think-tank said on Wednesday, a move that would also benefit secular parties.
Rising social unrest because of high inflation combined with the prospect of 80-year-old President Hosni Mubarak handing over to an as-yet unknown successor make Egypt's future uncertain, the Brussels-based group said in a report.
Question marks, both in Egypt and abroad, over the Islamists' ultimate political ambitions after they won an unprecedented fifth of seats in parliament in 2005, are adding to the uncertainty.
The Brothers are now the largest opposition group in parliament, although they must sit as independents, with the regime in recent months clamping down on them, arresting hundreds and trying dozens in military courts.
"The ruling National Democratic Party's refusal to loosen its grip risks exacerbating tensions at a time of both political uncertainty surrounding the presidential succession and serious socio-economic unrest," the report said.
Efforts to restrict the Brothers' political role have "noticeably degraded the quality of parliamentary and political life, entrenching the NDP's virtual monopoly and dealing a severe blow to the legal, non-Islamist opposition."
The Brothers' success in 2005 "confirmed their position as an extremely well-organised and deeply rooted political force," it said, while the NDP's strategy of drip-feeding the Islamists power may prove counter-productive.
If the regime thought the Brothers' electoral progress "could be used to stoke fears of an Islamist takeover and thereby serve as a reason to stall reform ... the strategy is at risk of backfiring."
The regime should "formally incorporate the Muslim Brothers or an associated political party into the political realm and open the political arena to a genuine democratic contest."
However, "the very reasons that make it more urgent -- a tense socio-economic environment and a looming political transition -- also make it more difficult for the regime to contemplate."
And while the Brothers "have made considerable efforts to clarify their vision and can make a credible case that they embrace the rules of democratic politics... many of their pronouncements are ambiguous."
Their most recent political programme "retains a distinctly non-democratic, illiberal tone."
The Brothers must "clarify the role of women and the place of religious minorities -- neither of whom the Muslim Brothers believe should be eligible for the presidency.
"The Muslim Brothers are too powerful and too representative for there to be either stability or genuine democratisation without finding a way to incorporate them."
The Islamists' political integration would constitute "an essential step to a genuine opening of the political sphere that would also benefit secular opposition forces."
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