BAGHDAD (AFP) — The US military will use the approaching Muslim holy month of Ramadan as an indicator of whether it can reduce US troop numbers in Iraq, a top military commander said on Tuesday.
Lieutenant General Ray Odierno made the remark a day after President George W. Bush in a surprise visit to Iraq hinted that the current level of 155,000 troops could be cut if the improved security situation is maintained in regions such as Anbar province.
The Iraqi government, meanwhile, said Bush's visit represented a stamp of approval for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is fighting for his political life after making little headway in reconciling the country's bitterly divided communities.
However, that view may be challenged as a new US government report released on Tuesday showed that Baghdad has failed to meet 11 of 18 benchmarks for political and security reforms set by the US Congress.
The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which this year begins around September 12, is often a time when insurgents launch brutal attacks on security forces and civilians.
The lead-up to Ramadan this year has so far seen low levels of violence, said Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq.
"Ramadan is big," Odierno said, adding that what happens in the next 45 days would be important.
"So far in the 30 days before Ramadan violence has been going down," he told a group of foreign reporters at a military base in Baghdad.
In the past, he said, violence had increased before and during Ramadan and then tapered once it was over.
"This year it has been going down (before the start). We think this is a trend," he said.
"So all we have to do is carry this out and see its impact as a whole over time," he said, adding "that will be a big indicator" of whether the current security is maintained and in turn help decide on reducing the forces.
Odierno said attacks across the country last week represented the lowest weekly number in the past 15 months while attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months.
"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," he said.
The general said Bush would listen to his commanders on the ground when assessing the potential for a troop drawdown but that he wanted to reduce the numbers from a "position of success and strength and not failure."
"He is not going to reduce forces because people think we are failing, he will do so because he thinks we are having success... that is the message," Odierno said.
On Monday, during a surprise visit to Iraq's western province of Anbar, Bush indicated that the number of American troops could be reduced if the current security situation is maintained.
"If the kind of success we are now seeing (in Anbar) continues, it is possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces," Bush said after meeting his top officials at a desert air base in the province.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Bush could decide on the troop levels "fairly shortly."
Surveying Iraq overall, Donald Rumsfeld's successor as defence secretary told ABC News: "Actually, I am more optimistic than I have been at any time since I took this job."
The Pentagon under Rumsfeld came under fire Tuesday in a report by USA Today showing that the Defense Department has often dragged its feet or refused to spend on safe equipment for US troops.
Among the examples, the newspaper cited hesitance by US army officials to buy Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles despite eager requests from commanders in Iraq. The acquisitions have become higher priorities under Gates, the paper added.
Bush's visit to Iraq was seized upon by Baghdad as a sign that Washington wants Maliki to continue at the helm, despite increasing calls for him to be replaced over his failure to carry out reconciliation.
"The message is that there is no alternative to this government," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said in a television interview. "Thinking of alternatives to this government is a figment of the imagination."
In Washington, however, Congress has returned from summer recess and lawmakers began poring over the report on the Iraqi government's failure to meet most objectives.
"Overall key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend 10 billion dollars in reconstruction funds," the Government Accountability Office (GAO) report said.
US Comptroller General David Walker, who heads the GAO, described the Iraqi government as dysfunctional at a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing after unveiling the report.
"I think you have to say it is dysfunctional, the government is dysfunctional," Walker said after being asked if the Maliki administration could be described as a failed enterprise.
The White House downplayed the GAO report, saying it did not show the whole picture.
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