PARIS (AFP) — US emissions of greenhouse gases are poised to rise by nearly a quarter over a key UN benchmark by 2025, the date set by President George W. Bush for stabilising this pollution, an International Energy Agency (IEA) expert said on Friday.
The benchmark of 1990 is a closely watched -- and politically sensitive -- measure of commitment for tackling global warming.
"With current policies, the greenhouse-gas emissions of the US will increase by 18 percent between 2005 and 2025," IEA chief economist Fathi Birol told AFP.
"If you compare this with 1990 levels, by 2025 there will be plus 38 percent.
He added: "If the (newly announced) policies and measures -- energy efficency, renewables, all the policies -- are implemented, you can take off about 15 percent from this."
"So it means an increase of about 23 percent between 1990 and 2025, but only if the policies are implemented and respected."
Bush's plan ran into fire at a meeting of major emitters in Paris on Thursday and Friday, where some countries lashed it as falling way short of what was needed.
The European Union has promised to cut its own carbon pollution by 20 percent by 2020 compared with the 1990 level, and offered to deepen this to 30 percent if the United States and other rich economies follow suit.
UN scientists last year sketched a target of cuts of 25-40 percent by advanced economies by 2020.
Greenhouse gases are caused mainly by burning oil, gas and coal, which provide the backbone of today's energy sources.
Cutting these emissions carries an economic cost, for it requires measures in energy efficiency or a switch to alternative technologies that are still in their infancy.
The United States is the world's biggest emitter, accounting for nearly a quarter of the global volume, although by some estimates it has already been overtaken by China.
Bush on Wednesday said he wants US emissions to peak by 2025, thanks to greater incentives for energy efficiency and a switch to low-carbon technology.
At present, US emissions are some 16 percent over the 1990 level.
Asked in Paris on Thursday as to the likely figure for 2025, the head of the White House's Council on Environmental Quality, Jim Connaughton, said: "It will be slightly above where we are now and significantly below where the analysts have projected where we would otherwise be."
The year 1990 is the yardstick for emissions as used by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), of which the United States is a member.
The United States is not a member of the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol, which requires industrialised parties to make legally binding curbs in their emissions.
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