China's tight pork supply unlikely to ease before H1 next year

BEIJING (AFP) — Pork supplies in China will remain tight over the next 10 months, ensuring that the rising price of the dietary staple will contribute to inflation, a leading official said Tuesday.

"There probably will not be any fundamental change in pork supply until after the second quarter of next year," said Bi Jinquan, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency.

"Measures currently taken by the government will help recover pig production and gradually stabilise pork prices. But this does not mean the consumer price index will drop back to below three percent in the short run," he told reporters.

Bi reaffirmed comments made by central bank vice governor Su Ning last week that China was very likely to miss the full year inflation target of 3.0 percent despite a spate of measures taken to control price rises.

In the first seven months of the year, China's consumer price index, a key indication of inflation, rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year, to which food price hikes contributed 2.9 percentage points, Bi said.

In July alone the index was up by 5.6 percent as meat prices soared by 45.2 percent, thanks in large part to the rising cost of feed such as corn and a respiratory pig virus that has curbed supply, he said.

Rising prices, which historically have threatened to topple the entire regime, have become a major concern of the Chinese government.

Premier Wen Jiabao and other officials have constantly called for the stabilisation of food prices, voicing worries that rising cost of food could lead to social unrest.